Kathmandu. Now the scenario is similar to that of the Great Recession of 2008. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a major reason. Rapidon Energy Group said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until August would increase the risk of an economic crisis similar to that of the 2008 Great Recession.
The consulting firm estimates that average oil demand will fall by 2.6 million barrels per day when the Strait reopens in July, and that the futures market price of benchmark Brent crude could reach about $130 a barrel by the summer.
According to Rapidan, if the disruption continues beyond July, a further sharp drop in demand will be needed to offset the supply shock in August and September. That could be enough to bring about an annual decline in global oil consumption in 2026.
The warning came after the United States and Iran maintained their contradictory stance on Thursday over Tehran’s uranium stockpile and control of Hormuz. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were “positive signs” in the talks.
Many experts expect an unusual decline in global demand this year. The war between the US, Israel and Iran has disrupted global markets and raised fears of a recession in inflation and price rises. As a result, the price of oil has almost doubled since the end of February.
According to experts, similar oil prices were expected to rise at that time. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, oil prices are currently lower than they were in 1970 or 2007-08. “Even if oil prices are well below record highs, that doesn’t remove the risks,” Rapidon experts wrote in a note. Continued increases in oil prices could further exacerbate financial and macroeconomic risks. ’
U.S. President Donald Trump has said the U.S. will finally recover Iran’s uranium stockpile. Otherwise, Iran will use it to develop nuclear weapons. However, Tehran says its goal is to maintain completely peaceful relations and therefore wants to develop nuclear weapons. Tensions between the two countries are high. As a result, the price of oil is rising and falling.
Oil prices have fluctuated significantly in Thursday’s volatile trading session. The uncertain prospect of a conflict resolution initially fell to $102 a barrel. But then it got closer to $105.
“If we don’t get a positive response from Iran, we are ready to launch attacks on Iran again,” Trump said. ’
The United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that the new attacks will retaliate outside Iranian territory. –Agency
